2009 Investec Derby preview

Filed on 1 Jun 2009 @ 10:53

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2009 INVESTEC DERBY (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (Three-year-old entire colts)

Epsom, Saturday 6 June 2009. One Mile Four Furlongs and ten yards.

Horse Rating	Comments

Sea The Stars 122	Sea The Stars landed the 2000 Guineas in impressive style, looking as though he had plenty more to offer. The form of the race looks strong and he is justifiably near the top of the betting. His dam Urban Sea has already produced a Derby winner in the shape of Galileo. The burning question is whether he has inherited enough stamina from his sire Cape Cross to see the trip out. The fact he travelled well so well in the Guineas, displaying a fine turn of foot, could suggest he will be best at distances around a mile. On the other side of the coin, we may have witnessed the start of a glittering three-year-old career on the twentieth anniversary of Nashwan’s Guineas/Derby double. Cape Cross already has an Oaks winner on his c.v. in the shape of Ouija Board. She possesses a similar profile on her dam’s side; raising hopes Sea The Stars will see the trip out. I personally feel he has looked the most impressive three-year-old here or in Ireland this season. Proud possessor of the top FSF rating, I suggest he has a serious chance of fending off the Ballydoyle Brigade. At this stage, I should point out that last years victor New Approach achieved an FSF figure of 124 when winning the race.
Fame And Glory 118	Fame And Glory comes into the race as the only unbeaten colt in the field. Wins at Navan and Saint-Cloud last season followed by two solid efforts at Leopardstown this season mark him down as a serious hope for the Blue Riband. His breeding suggests a mile and a half will not present any problems. He has improved each time he has stepped on the racecourse and looked particularly impressive in the Derrinstown Derby trial. What holds his FSF rating down is his time figure, though he may improve that as he steps up in distance. One thing to remember, the market nearly always tells the tale, even in Group One races, where Ballydoyle runners are concerned.
Crowded House 117	Improved throughout 2008, ending the season with an impressive victory in the Racing Post Trophy. The race as a whole was unsatisfactory affair. Runner-up Jukebox Jury suffered interference two and a half furlongs from home, and again when Crowded House swerved across the course into Skanky Biscuit. He in turn cannoned into the Mark Johnston colt. Skanky Biscuit himself was knocked out of his stride by the winner, though he looked at that stage, to have given his all. Crowded House found trouble two furlongs home, running into a pocket before being extricated by Spencer. Pulled right to make his challenge, the winner quickened and immediately hung to his left. Given the way he was initially forced out of his stride pattern, Crowded House did remarkably well to quicken and come through in the style he did. Prior to the Racing Post Trophy, Crowded House had finished second to subsequent Breeders Cup Juvenile hero Donativum, at Newmarket. He raced prominently that day and kept on well in the final furlong. Interestingly, he travelled with his head hanging slightly to his left in the first half of the race. Despite the fact he hacked up in his maiden round Kempton Park’s right-handed track, it seems reasonable to suggest left-handed tracks will suit him this season. A son of Rainbow Quest, Crowded House’s full-brother On Reflection, showed his best form at distances around the ten-furlong mark. However, he finished third in a mile and a half Listed event at San Sebastian, in Spain. His half-brother Heron Bay, won the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot, over a mile and a half. Crowded House has an excellent physique and possesses the scope to improve this season. However, having shown so much speed last season, there has to be a doubt about him seeing out a truly run mile and a half race. His recent effort at York can be put down to a poor scope which found mucus in his system. The Racing Post Trophy collateral form has not held up this season; that together with the doubt about his stamina and a rushed preparation, suggests he has a massive task ahead of him.
Black Bear Island 116	Black Bear Island returned to action this season with a rather unlucky run in France. He followed that effort with an excellent last gasp win in the Dante. Stablechum Freemantle set a scorching pace from the front; entering the final furlong he was remarkably still in control. As the cavalry closed in Freemantle managed to repel all challengers bar Black Bear Island. As an added bonus, the time of the race was extremely fast. The ratings men will point to the fact the field finished in something of a heap which holds the form down. Nevertheless, for a horse that is a full-brother to a Derby winner to clock a time figure as fast as he did over ten-furlongs does, I feel, outweigh the worry over the form. As with many scenarios such as this, it will not only be the horse that has progressed most since his last race, but the one that advances his performance over twelve-furlongs of Epsom’s hallowed turf. For me, Black Bear Island is that horse.
Freemantle 116	Following a relatively low key two-year-old career, Freemantle reappeared at York in the Dante Stakes. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of his juvenile career was his debut run at the Curragh in a race won by Teofilio in 2006 and New Approach in 2007. Black Bear Island in second, Freemantle in third and Sea The Stars in fourth were all making their debuts, while the winner Driving Snow was having his second run. Murtagh has ridden him on three of the four occasions he has run, including this race. In the Dante, Freemantle took up the running after a furlong and set a scorching pace from the front. Entering the final furlong he was remarkably still in control. He managed to repel all challengers bar Black Bear Island, who grabbed him on the line. The race was run in a fast time and it was a mighty seasonal reappearance. His closest relatives stayed ten-furlongs, both were from sires with a similar median stamina index, suggesting that a mile and a quarter is as far as he would want to go. A classy looking animal, he looks and races like a ten-furlong horse; if allowed to take his chance, he will ensure there are no hiding places for non-stayers.
Gan Ahmras 116	Yet another horse in the “how much will he improve” mould. By Derby winning sire Galileo, Gan Ahmras’s dam won a maiden over a mile and was placed over ten-furlongs at a modest level in Ireland. His two-year-old form was solid and he ran an excellent race in the 2000 Guineas. Having travelled well until two and a half furlongs from home, he found the quickening pace more than he could cope with. Nevertheless, as one would expect from a middle-distance pedigree, stamina kicked in and he kept on in a willing and likeable fashion to finish third. Sure to improve over twelve-furlongs, he may just lack that turn of foot that separates the good from the great.
Rip Van Winkle 115	The enigma that is Rip Van Winkle. Following two decent wins in Ireland, Rip Van Winkle arrived at Newmarket a short-priced favourite for the Dewhurst. Drawn wide, he never got into the race, although he finished close up with plenty of gas in the tank. Following a set-back early this year, his final preparations for the Guineas was interrupted by a stone bruise. In the circumstances he ran a fine race to finish fourth. Yet another colt by Galileo, his dam stayed a mile. Rip Van Winkle is her first offspring; the fact she is by the top-class sprinter Stravinsky, out of a mare that won over a mile, suggests stamina will be an issue. The one thing Rip Van Winkle has in his favour in his style of running. He races in a relaxed manner but just lacks the instant turn of foot for one-mile races. It may well turn out ten-furlongs will be his trip; we should not forget that Coolmore are never afraid to get a horse beaten in the Derby, before resuming their career over a shorter distance. Rip Van Winkle reminds me of Oratario. He was beaten in the English Guineas and Derby before taking the Eclipse and Irish Champion over ten-furlongs.
Golden Sword 113	Golden Sword is fine stamp of a racehorse, though his size may count against him on the downhill run at Epsom. Following a satisfactory return to action in France, he was dispatched to Chester. Making all the running, he gradually wound up the pace from the front, his stamina ensuring he was never going to be caught in the short home straight. The form suggests he may just be below the very best. However, when given the chance to use his huge stride he will be winning Group races this season.
Masterofthehorse 112	A full-brother to 2006 Oaks heroine Alexandrova, Masterofthehorse is clearly happiest racing over middle-distances. If one forgives his run in the Racing Post Trophy last season, his record suggests we are dealing with a top-class colt. In addition, he left the firm impression there was a lot more to come following his run behind Golden Sword at Chester. Held-up, miles off the pace, he never had the slightest hope of catching the enterprisingly ridden winner. I am not convinced the overall form is that of a Derby winner, though Masterofthehorse has place chances if upping his game another notch on Saturday.
Kite Wood 110	Yet another son Galileo. Having won his maiden at Doncaster Kite Wood put up a good display of front-running at Ascot in the Group Three Autumn Stakes. The collateral form of that race has not turned out to be the level needed to win a Derby. Returning to action in the Dante, he finished a one-paced fifth behind Black Bear Island. Unless the extra two-furlongs brings about substantial improvement, he looks to hold place claims at best.
Debussy 108	Following an easy win in a maiden on the all-weather, Debussy ran out an impressive winner of the Blue Riband Stakes on this course in April. His limitations were exposed behind Golden Sword at Chester; he has to find something we have not yet seen, to be in the fun at the business end.
Age Of Aquarius 103	A progressive and game horse, Age Of Aquarius won the Lingfield Derby Trial in May. Having come down the hill without any problem, his rider felt the quickening pace caused him to run wide as they turned for home. Father Time rather let down the form of the race on his next outing, though Alwaary, who finished fourth, won a Listed event at Goodwood recently. Age Of Aquarius needs to improve on the form shown so far. However, he still looked green at Lingfield Park and is a colt with plenty of size and improvement in him. We should not forget he finished just over a length behind Fame And Glory at Saint-Cloud last season. That race was run on heavy ground and Age Of Aquarius has a fast ground action; something that looks sure to stand him in good stead on Saturday.
South Easter 105	Promising colt that has had two runs this season, having been unraced as a juvenile. Following a promising second to Border Patrol at Newbury, he battled on well to defeat Gitano Hernando at Chester in the Dee Stakes. A son of Galileo he will improve again for that run and should appreciate the step up to a mile and a half. His inexperience and the improvement needed, suggest this test may come too early in his career.
Montaff 102	Just touched of by Age Of Aquarius at Lingfield Park, he left me with the impression he was flattered to finish as close as he did. His trainer has been bullish about his work at home since that run and he deserves his crack at glory.

Filed on 1 Jun 2009 @ 10:53

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