Part of the Guide to the 2008/9 National Hunt season service from Graham Richards. His Flat Season Guide is published soon - order your subscription online today for the full service, including previews of all major events through the Flat season.
John Smith's Grand National
Aintree, 4:15pm, Saturday 4 April 2009. Four miles four furlongs.
- The most significant, and perhaps best-known statistic for finding National winners, is that in the last 51 years only one horse, Red Rum, has carried more than 11st 5lbs to victory.
- Hedgehunter is the only horse since Corbiere in 1982 to lump more than 11st to victory and he carried only 1lb more than that threshold.
- Horses carrying over 11st 5lbs are 0-75 since 1977.
- Eight of the last nine winners were officially rated from 136-140.
- The last French bred horse to win was nearly one hundred years ago.
Arteea
Age: 10 Weight: 10-2 Trainer: David Pipe
Has not shown a lot since coming over to the UK and has never won over further than two and a half miles. Best on soft and heavy ground
Battlecry
Age: 8 Weight: 10-7 Trainer: Twiston-Davies
Has age on his side and stamina on both sides of his pedigree. He could run a big race if taking to this unique test.
Big Fella Thanks
Age: 7 Weight: 10-12 Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Suited by a flat track and has improved since being sent into handicaps. May lack enough experience for this race and makes the odd error, which would negate his chances in this race. Official rating looks high enough now for what he has achieved. Acts on good through to soft ground. The last time a seven- year-old won the race was over sixty years ago.
Black Apalachi
Age: 10 Weight: 11-2 Trainer: Dessie Hughes
Bolted up in the Becher Chase last November off a 15lb lower mark. Won well at Fairyhouse in February, though the field had a sub-standard look to it. Soft to heavy ground is the key to him and he may find himself outspeeded on good or good to soft.
Butlers Cabin
Age: 9 Weight: 10-10 Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill
Winner of both the 2007 Irish National on good ground and the National Hunt Chase on good to soft. Going well when falling at Bechers second time round last year. Runs off the same mark as last season and has clearly been prepared for the race. One wonders if his form in the Kim Muir, is within 5lb of My Will’s in the Gold Cup, as that is what he is set receive in this race.
Brooklyn Brownie
Age: 10 Weight: 10-3 Trainer: Malcolm Jefferson
Second to Endless Power over these fences last November and an outsider with a chance. Stays three-miles one furlong and acts on good and soft ground. Breeding suggests he has a good chance of seeing the trip out and won his prep race in March.
Can’t Buy Time
Age: 7 Weight: 10-6 Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill
This fellow has been on an upward curve all season. Looked to be short of stamina over four-miles on his latest run at Cheltenham.
Cerium
Age: 8 Weight: 10-2 Trainer: Paul Murphy
Formerly with Paul Nicholls and useful on his day. Has suffered with his wind and now trained in Ireland. Not entirely disgraced in the Gold Cup. Along with Arteea, looks to be here to give his eccentric owners a day out.
Chelsea Harbour
Age: 9 Weight: 11-5 Trainer: Thomas Mullins
Good horse on his day. Has won over three and a half miles and all his wins have come on soft to heavy. Ninth last year and now 10lb higher in the official handicap.
Cloudy Lane
Age: 9 Weight: 11-7 Trainer: D McCain Jnr
May have to carry top weight and the evidence of his profile suggests he is at his very best over shorter distances. Comes into the race having fallen last time out.
Comply Or Die
Age: 10 Weight: 11-3 Trainer: David Pipe
Landed a nation-wide gamble last season when coming home with plenty to spare. Not in the same form as last year coming into the race and a 15lb hike may see him in a supporting role this time round.
Cornish Sett
Age: 10 Weight: 10-7 Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Improved form since a wind operation. Forget his last run on the stodgy Haydock Park ground. His second in the Welsh National and win at Wincanton gives him a lively chance from the longer priced brigade.
Darkness
Age: 10 Weight: 10-6 Trainer: Charlie Egerton
Looked likely to be top-class in his novice days; has had injuries and setbacks over the past three seasons. Won last time out and officially 8lb well in at the weights. Loves good or good to soft ground and chances if staying the trip.
Eurotrek
Age: 13 Weight: 11-0 Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Father Time is catching up with this one time top-class handicap chaser. Pulled-up in the 2007 renewal of the race.
Fleet Street
Age: 10 Weight: 10-7 Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Not an easy horse to keep sound but more than useful in handicaps when he is on song. Goes well on a flat track and has always shown his best form on good or good to soft ground. Stamina has to be taken on trust but not without a chance if he stays.
Fundamentalist
Age: 11 Weight: 10-8 Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Useful horse at best and grand servant to his connections. Fell at the third last season and
Golden Flight
Age: 10 Weight: 10-8 Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Classy French import who has been pleasing Nicky Henderson. Just one run this season at Cheltenham and needs to prove he is as good as he was three years ago. Hs won over three and a half miles, but always been at his best on soft or heavy ground.
Himalayan Trail
Age: 10 Weight: 10-3 Trainer: James J Mangan
Trainer has won the race in the past with Monty’s Pass. Only eight races over fences but won the Midlands Grand National by a street last season. Market support would be interesting.
Hear The Echo
Age: 8 Weight: 11-2 Trainer: Mouse Morris
Won the Irish National at Fairyhouse in 2008. Ticks many of the right boxes to suggest he has a leading chance. Unseating his rider on his last run, may not be the best possible scenario coming into the race.
Idle Talk
Age: 10 Weight: 10-2 Trainer: D McCain Jnr
Jumping a problem and recent profile suggests marathon trip may find him out.
Irish Invader
Age: 8 Weight: 10-6 Trainer: Willie Mullins
Won his last three races and handles all sorts of ground conditions. Joint into the unknown trip-wise. Bred to stay three and a half miles though extra mile is a worry.
Kelami
Age: 11 Weight: 10-5 Trainer: Lisa Williamson
Pulled up and unseated rider in the last two renewals of the race. Formerly with Francois Doumen but not in as good form these days.
Kilbeggan Blade
Age: 10 Weight: 10-4 Trainer: Tom George
Wins over hurdles and fences this season, make this fellow a lively outsider. However, he has weakened two fences from home; both times, he has run over four-miles.
Knowhere
Age: 11 Weight :11-4 Trainer: Nigel Twiston Davies
Has run in the last two renewals and unseated his rider both times. A clear round would give him a chance cut that appears unlikely. Appears to have a stiff task.
L’Ami
Age: 10 Weight: 10-8 Trainer: Enda Bolger
Fell in the 2008 renewal and tenth in 2007. In better form this season in Cross-Country races; does not look the bravest in a finish.
Maljimar
Age: 9 Weight: 10-1 Trainer: Nick Williams
Ran a blinder at Cheltenham recently when just touched off by Wichita Lineman. Same sire as Philson Run and Nil Desperandum who both finished fourth in the race. His dams sire is also the sire of Lord Atterbury, who was third in 2004. Enjoys good or good to soft ground, has had a light campaign, and one of the better long-shots.
Mon Mome
Age: 9 Weight: 10-11 Trainer: V Williams
Solid stayer but needs to recapture early season form to have a chance.
Musica Bella
Age: 9 Weight: 10-7 Trainer: Francois Cottin
Trained in France and has never won over further than two and three-quarters miles. Has been placed in decent class races this season, but will not have run at the pace this race is likely to be run at.
My Will
Age: 9 Weight: 11-1 Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Has been a grand servant for connections. Officially rated 160, but will run here off 152. Showed he is still a force to be reckoned with when a staying on fifth in this years Cheltenham Gold Cup. Twice third, in the Whitbread on good and good to firm ground, he is a winner over three and a half miles at Cheltenham. In addition, he has run well on the Melling Course displaying his ability to act on flat left-handed track.
Offshore Account
Age: 9 Weight: 10-10 Trainer: Charlie Swan
Had had just one outing since December 2007. That came in a hurdle race at Navan in mid-March. His best form would give him a squeak, though anyone’s guess whether he can produce it.
Ollie Magern
Age: 11 Weight: 11-3 Trainer: Twiston-Davies
Still fast enough to take them a long for a good while. May find the second circuit testing his stamina reserves.
Parsons Legacy
Age: 11 Weight: 10-9 Trainer: Philip Hobbs
Specifically prepared for the race and third in the Scottish version last season. 6lb higher than his last win; he should still run well if the going is no softer than good to soft.
Preists Leap
Age: 9 Weight: 11-2 Trainer: Thomas O’Leary
Has never won over further than three-miles and enjoys soft to heavy ground. Seventh in the Irish National Last season.
Rambling Minster
Age: 11 Weight: 10-6 Trainer: Keith Reveley
Has found his form with a vengeance this season. Wins at Cheltenham and Haydock have propelled him toward the top of the betting market. Officially rated on 149 he will run here off 143 leaving him 6lb well in. Has won over four miles round Kelso’s left-handed track and prefers some cut in the ground.
Reveillez
Age: 10 Weight: 10-9 Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill
Won on the Melling Course here in 2007 and followed up with a second to Hot Weld in the Whitbred Gold Cup the same year. In addition, he was a winner at the Cheltenham Festival in 2006. Has been difficult to train recently but well-handicapped on his old form.
Silver Birch
Age: 12 Weight: 10-11 Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Aintree hero in 2007 but facing a race against time to make the line up in tip-top shape.
Snowy Morning
Age: 9 Weight: 11-5 Trainer: Willie Mullins
Steadily finding his form this season. Finished third last year. An 11lb hike is not going to make matters any easier this time round but should be thereabouts.
Southern Vic
Age: 10 Weight: 10-6 Trainer: Ted Walsh
Consistent handicap chaser. On the downside, he has not shown his very best form for sometime. All his wins have come on soft or soft to heavy.
Stan
Age: 10 Weight: 11-3 Trainer: Venetia Williams
Decent horse when he is on song but hard to predict. Has won on the Melling Course and goes well on good and good to soft ground. Ran six times in April 2007 and 2008 winning three of those races.
State Of Play
Age: 9 Weight: 10-13 Trainer: Evan Williams
Not the easiest of horse to train and needs to be fresh. Looks fairly handicapped and has won on the Melling course. Chances if things go his way during the race and has been well supported recently.
Zabenz
Age: 12 Weight: 10-5 Trainer: Philip Hobbs
Formerly a useful handicapper and has been Point-to Pointing with success this season. Unluckily pulled up when leather broke last year. A line of form through Darkness, suggests he has much the same chance as that fellow. He may run into the frame with luck in running.