Betfair Chase (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) (Grade One)

Haydock Park, 2:05 GMT Saturday 24 November 2007. Three miles

Saturday's Betfair Chase at Haydock looks a fascinating prospect, with Kauto Star bidding for back-to-back victories in the race, his second of the season following his second to Monet's Garden in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree last time.

Looking at Kauto Star’s FSF (Form and Speed) ratings below, we can see he was clearly at his best at Haydock, Sandown, and Kempton last season. That he appears to have run below that form beforehand and subsequently raises questions to try to answer.

Looking at the form ratings** below we can see he achieved his best form figure at Aintree in October. Conversely, two of his three worst speed element figures*** came in the same race, last and this season.

I believe we can approach the Betfair Chase with two distinct possibilities.

A) He needs a run to put him straight and then improves for his next two or three races.

Or

B) His FSF figures since the 2006 King George having deteriorated, he may well be feeling the effects of his gruelling 2006 pre-Christmas campaign.

I think it is fair to say he is a horse who takes some knowing his races. The fact he will have a new jockey, added to the comments above, suggests to me there is enough evidence to step back from a bet at short odds. It is hoped, the Betfair Chase will provide us with more answers than questions

My Way De Solzen has notched his best FSF ratings at Cheltenham, Aintree, Sandown and Lingfield. He stays three-miles over hurdles; the furthest he has gone over fences is two miles five furlongs at Cheltenham. He has run twice at Haydock Park; two and a half miles over fences and three-miles over hurdles.

He has contested fives races over three-miles or three miles one furlong. He won two of those. The first at Chepstow was a slowly run affair that saw Inglis Drever falling three hurdles from home, the other, in the World Hurdle, he just got home by the skin of his teeth.

His performance in his three defeats all suggested he struggled to see the trip out. The energy used by a horse over fences is considerably higher than over hurdles; it is therefore no surprise his trainer feels two and a half, or two and three-quarters of a mile will be his optimum trip.

He is a difficult horse to get fit and has been beaten first time out for the past two seasons. In addition, he is attempting three-miles on what is, on my time figures, the stiffest track of those listed below. Both Desert Orchid and Edredon Bleu had stamina issues prior to their respective victories in the King George; defeat at Haydock Park, should not be taken as a negative with regard to his chances. As with Kauto Star, I am of the opinion there is enough evidence to suggest he is not a betting proposition this Saturday.

Exotic Dancer has been campaigned exclusively at Cheltenham, Aintree and Kempton Park, ever since he was beaten at Carlisle last November. He has so far avoided Haydock, and fell at the first on his only run Sandown; the two stiffest tracks on my personal standard time ratings:

Standard Times

Newbury Three Miles 5:41:3
14:22 seconds per furlong
Kempton Park Three Miles 5:42:9
14:28 seconds per furlong
Ascot Three Miles 5:47:4
14:47 seconds per furlong
Aintree Three Miles One Furlong 6:01:8
14:47 seconds per furlong
Cheltenham (old course) Three Miles 110 Yards 5:55:4
14: 56 seconds per furlong
Sandown Park Three Miles 110 Yards 5:59:0
14:65 seconds per furlong
Haydock Park Three Miles 5:55:0
14:79 seconds per furlong

His four best FSF ratings have come at those courses over two miles five furlongs, three miles, three miles one furlong, and three mile three furlongs.

The most visually impressive came in the two mile five furlong race and he looked to my eyes not too stay in a slowly run Gold Cup. His profile clearly shows he has always needed a race to get him fit. My view is that unless there is a slow pace he will not see the trip out.

Turpin Green interests me. He has five lengths to make up on Kauto Star and two and a half lengths to make up on Exotic Dancer. We know the time was slow and the emphasis on stamina was not as great as normal.

It would I feel, be reasonable to assume that in a strongly run race he has chances of reversing the form. He goes well fresh (winner first time out in 04,05,06 ) and his three best FSF ratings have come on good, good to soft and heavy. He ran well at Haydock under a huge weight in January of this year; I feel he represents reasonable each-way value against the “Big Three”. If Ollie Magern is in the field, we should be assured of a true run race.

Of the remainder, Beef Or Salmon has never won outside his native country. Taranis is still to prove he will stay a truly run three-miles. Monkerhostin, though running well last time looks past his very best. Aces Four is another who has to prove he can stay three-miles in Grade One Company. Offshore Account is improving and has potential, though he has a lot to find in this company. Ollie Magern finds it hard to run two races alike these days; he has finished seventh in the race for the last two seasons.

FSF
KAUTO STAR 157
EXOTIC DANCER 152
BEEF OR SALMON 148
MY WAY DE SOLZEN 148
DENMAN 146
TURPIN GREEN 145
TARANIS 143
OLLIE MAGERN 142
MONKERHOSTIN 141
ACES FOUR 139
MADISON DU BERLAIS 139
TOO FORWARD 139
YES SIR 137
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT 135