Part of the National Hunt Guide to the 2008/09 Season service from Graham Richards. Order your copy online today for the full service, including previews of all the novice events at Cheltenham.

Gold Cup | World Hurdle | Champion Chase | Champion Hurdle

totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup

Trends

No horse older than 10-years has won since 1969
14 of the last 15 winners were aged between seven and nine
Seven of the last eight winners were officially rated 166 or higher
Nine of the last 11 winners were placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival
19 of the last 21 winners finished in the first four in their previous race
No horse placed in the previous year's Gold Cup has won the next year since 1983
Horses beaten in the Gold Cup before are 1-58 since 1994
Only See More Business bucks the trend having been “carried out” in 1998

The Blue Riband and for many the highlight of the Cheltenham Festival. Recent events have thrown the race into a state of confusion and some would say disbelief. Denman made his eagerly awaited reappearance at Kempton Park following his well-documented problems. The first thing to report was that the ground was heavy rather than the advertised good to soft. This is based on two independent time reports. One could argue the form of the race at Kempton Park was devalued by the injury to Joe Lively. Several good paddock judges considered Denman did not look the same horse physically, with some suggesting he looked a different colour!

In fairness to the horse he was entitled to need the run, having come back from what was a serious problem; in addition, the track would not have played to his strengths. However, one cannot get away from the fact he went into the race rated 23lb superior to Madison Du Berlais on official ratings and finished the race twenty-three lengths behind. While Cheltenham brings out the best in him, there has to be a chance that his performance last March, which on form and speed figures was nothing short of sensational, has left its mark. Connections have less than five-weeks to bring about the improvement needed. Whilst not impossible, in normal circumstances one would consider it unlikely. One of the best clock-watchers in racing, compared the time it took to get from the third last to the final fence on the first and second circuit. He reports Denman took just over four seconds longer on the second circuit. Given this is the time of the race when you should be piling on the pace, it is perhaps the most damning statistics. Over the years, many sporting heroes, both human and equine, produce a performance that heralds the pinnacle of their career. Unfortunatley, it is often the catalyst for the end of that career at the highest level. Finally, from a visual perspective, the awesome jumping, enthusiasm, and exuberance, which made his performances last season so compelling, was, I feel, missing at Kempton Park.

Madison Du Berlais’s performance at Kempton Park cannot be faulted. He jumped for fun throughout the race and won easily. Nevertheless, we now have to assess his chances in the Gold Cup itself. His profile displays a liking for flat tracks and smaller fields. His only win in a field of twelve or more runners came in the Hennessey last December. This came round the wide-open spaces of Newbury and he clearly has more races in him at this level. However, a record of 0-5 at Cheltenham, tempers enthusiasm over his chance.

Alberta’s Run never got involved and was wisely looked after in ground he clearly disliked. Runner-up to Kauto Star in the King George, he does look to have it all to do to reverse placings. You will not need reminding Cheltenham and Kempton Park are as different as chalk and cheese. He has run seven times over hurdles and fences on good ground. Four wins, two seconds, and one third is the impressive haul. His win in the Grade One SunAlliance Chase last season, came on good to soft ground. If good ground prevails, I can see him running a good race; given those conditions, he appeals as an each-way selection.

Kauto Star has been kept fresh for the race following his hat trick of King George successes. I personally feel he is still operating below his very best form. An analysis of his Timeform and Racing Post ratings, adding in his speed figures, reveals his career best performances as follows.

I offer two conclusions.

1) He is at his very best away from Cheltenham.

2) His best performance on ratings in 2008 came at his beloved Kempton Park in the King George.

However, in terms of ratings, it was the lowest of his three wins. I accept that he will be a fresher horse than last season, whilst recent events will arguably make his task easier this time round. Whether he can once again muster enough on the long climb to the line, is open to debate. Finally, he has that millstone statistic round his neck. Since 1994, only one winner has emerged from the fifty-eight horses beaten in a previous Gold Cup.

Neptune Collonges appeared unsuited to Cheltenham until his fine effort in the 2008 Gold Cup the. Having led for the first circuit, he found it impossible to match Denman’s injection of pace as they went away from the stands for the final time. Working his way back into contention, a mistake at the fourth last fence cost him valuable ground and momentum. A ponderous jump at the second last cost him further ground and the game looked up. However, his stamina reserves kicked in; that allied to Denman and Kauto Star tiring, enabled him to close the gap on the run-in. Eight-years-old and arguably at the height of his powers, he should go close if avoiding those jumping errors. In the Lexus Chase, he had raced with his usual enthusiasm up to the point of his departure. He was going well enough at that time, though my gut feeling is Exotic Dancer would have come out on top that day. In addition, his profile suggests his jumping is more reliable when going right-handed. Neptune Collonges put that disappointment behind him when running out a comfortable winner of the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown. His jumping was ponderous at times, though he never looked like falling. Given the speed this race is usually run at, there has to be a chance he will spoil his chance with a mistake at a crucial stage of the race.

Exotic Dancer has an excellent record at Prestbury Park. He has won four times, finished second on two occasions and third once. His two unplaced runs came in the 2007 Gold Cup, when not at his best physically and the World Hurdle in 2005. Following an commendable return to action under top-weight at Aintree, he was somewhat disappointing in the Betfair Chase. However, he looked back to his best at Leopardstown, travelling as well as he has ever done throughout the race. If he can arrive in tip-top physical shape, his chance is much respected. We should not forget he got to within two and a half lengths of Kauto Star when that fellow won the 2007 renewal.

Barbers Shop won comfortably at Sandown Park following his second to Imperial Commander in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. He has just turned seven-year-old and there should be much more to come from him. Barbers Shop’s trainer Nicky Henderson is a trainer who does not over faze his horses. His preparation for the Festival races is meticulous; if this fellow does run here his chance is respected.

Notre Pere ran away with the Welsh Grand National and has the look of an improving horse. He showed the utmost courage and persistence behind Neptune Collonges at Leopardstown recently. The extra distance of this race will enable his staying powers to kick-in and it should not be forgotten his trainer knows what it takes to win the race. His chance would be highly respected if the ground became soft to heavy; given those conditions, he appeals as a lively each-way prospect.

Prior to the King George, Air Force One had run two excellent races this season, finishing second under big weights on both occasions. On Hennessy Gold Cup form, he is weighted to run a dead-heat with Madison Du Berlais. Two of his three best career runs have come going right-handed, while the other came at Newbury’s wide, galloping track. Since arriving in the UK, his record shows just one run out of the first two going right-handed. That came at Kempton Park in December when he finished the race with torn muscles in his back. His two finishing efforts at the Festival in the Brit Hurdle and SunAlliance Chase, suggest stamina may well be a problem.

Others to consider include Star De Mohaison who may have “bounced” last time out. That run was the only time he has been out of the first three at Cheltenham, his best form gives him an outside chance. Halcon Genelardais chances appear to have evaporated following his tame finishing in the Cotswold Chase. War Of Attrition was well beaten in the Lexus Chase and simply does not look the force of old.