NH horses to follow - Kauto Star

Filed on 16 Oct 2007 @ 16:24

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KAUTO STAR (FR) 7-y-o bay gelding

Village Star (FR) - Kauto Relka (FR) (Port Etienne (FR))
Trainer: P F Nicholls
Form: 12/21F/111111
FSF rating: 157

Kauto Star first served notice of his potential stardom in December 2004. Having his first run in the UK, he jumped his rivals into submission, coming home nine-lengths in front of the more than useful Foreman. Following an unscheduled stop on the Exeter turf, which led to an eleven month lay off, he hit the big time when he won the Tingle Creek Chase in December 2005. Unfortunately, for his connections and supporters, he departed from the 2006 Champion Chase stage at the third fence.

Returning to action in October 2006, he ran away from his stablechum Armaturk at Aintree. He then proceeded to win the Betfair Chase, Tingle Creek Chase, King George VI Chase, Aon Chase and finally the Blue Riband at Cheltenham, where he came through the field to land the Gold Cup and a £1,000,000 bonus.

Unfortunately, he has developed a heart stopping habit of missing the last fence and I fear this may be his undoing at some stage of his career. His FSF ratings suggest his best performances have come in the King George (155), Betfair Chase (153) and Tingle Creek (153); his Gold Cup figure was a disappointing 144.

The time of the 2007 Gold Cup was distinctly ordinary

The time of the 2007 Gold Cup was distinctly ordinary, suggesting the stamina usually needed to win the race was not as great as normal. I am far from convinced Exotic Dancer truly stayed, while Turpin Green third and Monkerhostin fourth, are handicappers, albeit decent ones. The time figures also back this up. Figures taken from, Split Second and Topspeed amongst others, confirm the race was a slowly run affair.

If we study the difference between the times of the last three winners of the Gold Cup and the Foxhunters Chase, (the following race on the card run over the same distance, see below), we see the reason why. Kicking King ran 7.40 seconds faster than Sleeping Night, War Of Attrition ran 11 seconds faster than Whyso Mayo while Kauto Star ran just 5.86 seconds faster than Drombeag. One has to point out War Of Attrition and Whyso Mayo both jumped one fence less than the other two examples.

Nevertheless, the time recorded by Kauto Star, would I feel, have seen him finishing around ten lengths behind Kicking King. Given this assumption is correct, we have the distinct possibility Kauto Star will be vulnerable in this season’s renewal. The question is will one emerge/return during the season? Summing up, I feel a healthy, fit, motivated Kauto Star will once again win the Betfair Chase and the King George VI. If we read connections comments correctly, he will not have as many races prior to Cheltenham. However, that will not stop his stamina being tested to the full in a Gold Cup run at its normal pace.

Kauto Star 6:40:46
Drombeag 6:46:60

War Of Attrition 6:31:70
Whyso Mayo 6:42:70

Kicking King 6:42:90
Sleeping Night 6:50:30

FSF Figures are an amalgam of the horses’ fastest time rating and best form rating. Those shown in the paragraph on Kauto Star were taken from his two-mile and three-mile form.

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    Filed on 16 Oct 2007 @ 16:24