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Who has the stamina for Epsom?Filed on 5 May 2006 @ 11:44
Some professionals believe you need a mile-and-a-quarter horse to win the Derby, but recent renewals of the Epsom Classic do not bear out this theory. For every Nashwan, who was fast enough to take the 2000 Guineas en route to the blue riband, there have been half a dozen colts - like Generous, Commander In Chief, Lammtarra, High-Rise, Sinndar and Motivator - whose best efforts were saved for the full mile and a half. Here, we assess the leading 2006 contenders by pedigree to sift out those who will stay the trip. Atlantic Waves There does not seem any doubt about this colt lasting the Derby distance, as his sire has already shown he can impart the necessary stamina and his dam is by a stallion who won the Epsom Classic in 1978. As Highest Accolade is also related to Lammtarra, winner of the big race in 1995, sufficient endurance is guaranteed. Class may be a different matter. Fire And Rain Galileo's influence obviously offers encouragement here, because he landed the Derby in 2001 and has made a decent, if unspectacular, start at stud. Factors from the dam's side appear to undermine hopes of mile-and-a-half glory, however, as she is a half-sister to shorter-runner Beckett and from the family of Entrepreneur. Epsom looks a step too far. Frost Giant Far too many miling influences appear in this one's background to make him a natural for the premier Classic. Giant's Causeway may have been an 'iron horse' but he was never thought of as a serious Derby candidate, while the lightly-raced Takesmybreathaway seemed to run out of puff whenever she ran. All in all, a very unlikely Epsom contender. George Washington Bordighera scored over a mile and five furlongs and has already produced a high-class ten-furlong-plus winner in Grandera, so only the headstrong would jump in and say this colt will certainly not stay the Derby distance. He exhibited great speed at two, though, and Danehill, for all his apparent versatility as a sire, is no guaranteed stamina influence. Hala Bek Almost everything in this colt's pedigree suggests he has both the staying-power and the quality for the Epsom Classic, as he is a half-brother to that classy pair Imperial Stride and High Pitched, both of whom are suited to middle distances despite being by Indian Ridge. The slight doubt is Halling, so far without a superstar performer on his CV. Heliostatic Good omens abound in this one's breeeding, with Galileo's 2001 Epsom success backed up by the fact that Affianced, who won from seven furlongs to a mile and three-quarters, is a half-sister to an Irish Derby runner-up, Sholokhov. While stamina should not be a doubt, however, middle-distance Classic speed is questionable. Might he be a St Leger hopeful? Horatio Nelson Breeding buffs must hate pedigrees like this, because they seem designed specifically to trip up those who profess expertise. Imagine's contribution is merely one facet that could mislead, as she had the speed to collect an Irish Guineas, yet was also an Oaks heroine. Fence-sitting is not an option here, mind, and our guess is that the Derby will stretch him. King In Waiting Considering this colt is a full-brother to the 2004 Great Voltigeur runner-up Let The Lion Roar and a half-brother to both the 2000 St Leger hero Millenary and the useful staying filly Head In The Clouds, stamina should not be a issue for him. The big 'if' concerns his ability to recover from an early-season injury and gain enough experience before Epsom. Leningrad No trainer knows more about Montjeu colts winning the Derby than Michael Bell, who prepared Motivator to do the honours for this sire at Epsom in 2005. Bell will also be aware that lightning rarely strikes in the same place two years running and influences on this one's distaff side - his dam was best at nine furlongs - indicate a miracle is needed. Narvik Frankie Dettori's quest for a first Derby victory may just rest with Narvik, acquired by Godolphin after he took a seven-furlong maiden on his only juvenile outing. The former champion jockey ought not to have any worries about him lasting home, as his dam is a half-sister to a smart mile-and-a-half runner in Trumbaka. His talent is much less certain. Olympian Odyssey All owners would love to collect the blue riband trophy and Bill Gredley deserves to for his vast investment in bloodstock down the years. It is difficult to envisage this colt being the medium for great celebration at Epsom, however, because his dam was ideally suited to trips short of a mile and posted her lifetime best in the seven-furlong Prix de la Foret. Palace Episode Under American conditions - on dirt and around tight bends - some of this one's relatives have stayed up to a mile and a quarter. On European turf, though, that distance is harder to get and Palace Episode does not appear an obvious Derby candidate. If he proves this assessment incorrect it will not be because Machiavellian is a stamina influence. He isn't. Primary Sandown's Classic Trial has been taken by several Derby winners, including the mighty Shergar in 1980, so Primary's connections are entitled to dream after his success in that contest. Shergar was bred for a mile and a half, however, and won the Sandown event by a street. Neither is true of this colt, whose optimum trip is probably a mile and a quarter. Puerto Rico There are some West Side Story fans at the-racehorse.co.uk, not to mention a few sharks with a taste for the seamy side of New York, and they'd love to think a colt called Puerto Rico can add himself to the Derby's roll call of winners. They sometimes manage to stay all day. But, like this colt, whose dam never won, they appear to lack class not stamina. Septimus To fancy Septimus for Epsom, you have to assume he is better than he showed when only third behind Palace Episode in last October's Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster. This may just be the case, too, as his action was never fluent that day, whereas he looked happier in two earlier wins. He should get the Derby trip, because his dam won at a mile and a half. Sir Percy There seems stable confidence about Sir Percy staying at Epsom, despite his sire having been a miler who has occasionally produced middle-distance winners at less than Group One level. The theory is that Percy's Lass, being by 1969 Derby winner Blakeney, will engender stamina. She was a fast two-year-old, though, and not up to Classic standard. Visindar The messages from this colt's background are mixed. Everyone knows what Sinndar achieved, beating a high-class field to take the Derby in 2000, and the limited evidence from his stud career to date suggests he will be a stamina influence. Visor was very fast, however, so Visindar's staying the Derby trip is not a done deal. He is a 'probably will'. Winged Cupid In The Wings has performed honourably since taking up stallion duties, but some would argue too many of his stock lack pace for him to be considered any more than a qualified success. It is hard to oppose the view that Winged Cupid will fall short of Derby standard and, as his dam was a miler with seven-furlong relatives, this may be due to a lack of stamina. Filed on 5 May 2006 @ 11:44
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