Godolphin now in urgent need of Group One success

By Ian Carnaby

Watching the Group Two Lancashire Oaks the other day, various things occurred.

Firstly, the rain had come in time for Richard Fahey’s Anna Pavlova, who likes to do things her own way but is perfectly genuine. With the Oaks fourth Clowance a non-runner, followed on the day by Arthur’s Girl - who may yet prove the answer in the Yorkshire version at the Ebor meeting - Anna Pavlova had a clear chance. She made no mistake and was well on top through the final furlong.

It surprised me, however, when Fahey brought her out again in the Princess of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket only five days later. The last time she ran twice in quick succession it didn’t quite work, but this time her defeat was comprehensive as she trailed in last of the six runners. It’s not that important, of course. She owes no one anything, she was up against the colts this time and an unhappy outing is best put down to experience.

The Princess of Wales’s Stakes went to St Leger winner Lucarno, who was giving the famous old race its first significant boost unless you count third-placed Honolulu’s gallant triumph over the marathon distance of the Queen Alexandra Stakes. Lucarno has taken time to come to himself this year but deserves to take his chance in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at the end of the month.

Last year’s winner of the Newmarket race, Papal Bull, did not want so many absentees because of the ground and lacked for cover, quite apart from being squeezed late in the day. But there were no excuses for Godolphin’s Sagara, who dropped out and beat only Anna Pavlova home.

Sagara finished well to be third in the Arc last October. He had very good form leading up to it, having been one of the chief sufferers in a rough race for the Prix du Jockey-Club, and it was surprising that he started at 33 to 1 in the Bois de Boulogne. There appeared no reason why he should not go on and make a name for himself at four, which is presumably why Sheikh Mohammed bought him for Godolphin. But he looks a shadow of his former self and has now run very poorly twice and moderately once, when staying in touch until the closing stages of the Ascot Gold Cup.

Frankly, it is just as well the Sheikh bought subsequent Derby winner New Approach for his wife Princess Haya because the other high-profile purchases have not worked out at all. Regal Flush, fourth in the St Leger, has yet to win this term, while Dandy Man, who could not possibly have looked or run better than he did for Tracey Collins, still cannot quite cut it in the very best sprint races. Presumably he will try again in the Nunthorpe, though you can take it from me he looked quite magnificent last year before finishing a fair but essentially disappointing third.

Something needs to happen soon if Godolphin is to take on Ballydoyle

How much does it matter that the very best run for Godolphin? Well, we don’t really know. Sheikh Hamdan has always gone his own way, as it were, with outstanding performers remaining outside the ‘all blue’ fraternity. Does Sheikh Mohammed wish that New Approach had represented Godolphin in the Derby? Again, we don’t know. It was certainly a very happy family occasion and maybe he didn’t see New Approach as an Epsom colt anyway, with the stamina doubt on the dam’s side.

But if Godolphin is to take on the might of Coolmore/Ballydoyle, where Galileo and Montjeu may well call the tune for years to come, something needs to happen before the Sheikh’s own stallion purchases come into their own. And there is simply no sign of that happening at Group One level, where Aidan O’Brien has already won a dozen races this year.

When similar doubts were raised about Godolphin’s prowess a year ago, it was rightly pointed out that they weren’t doing so badly around the world. And there was Ramonti, of course, the ex-Italian horse who was unquestionably improved at Newmarket and rattled off four straight Group One victories. It is to be hoped that he picks up where he left off although, at the time of writing, Ascot’s Group Two Plymouth Gin Mile looked hardly a stroll in the park with old rival Cesare and South African challenger Archipenko in the line-up.

But perhaps the most worrying thing of all is the absence of talented new material coming through. There was a time when just about every two-year old debutant, every late-developing three-year old, called the tune in the market. Not any more. Now we have horses which may or may not win good prizes after lengthy setbacks. Just consider the John Smith’s Extra Cool Handicap at York, where Empire Day was due to reappear after an absence of 608 days and stable-companion Eastern Anthem was having only his fourth outing in the last two seasons. At Chester, Army Of Angels, now six years old (did Godolphin used to have six-year old handicappers?) was due to make his seasonal reappearance well into July, complete with tongue-tie.

There is no significant change of staff, so far as I know, and I never doubted that Saeed Bin Suroor trains the horses. Suggestions to the contrary struck me as scurrilous and wholly without foundation. But Godolphin is not the operation it was and this looks like being a very disappointing campaign.

If things are going to change, they need to change soon.