Is Exotic Dancer a superstar too?

By Ian Carnaby

There was enough going on at Haydock the other Saturday to fill three or four columns - Special Envoy falling at the last when looking a conditions horse in a valuable handicap hurdle and Millenium Royal taking full advantage with Christophe Pieux, 12 times champion of France, riding so short he looked like a cross between Lester Piggott and Andy Turnell - and if you can remember Andy perched up on his father’s horses when Jeff King and Johnny Haine were otherwise engaged, you’ll know what I mean.

Then there was another example of the vast sums people will pay for horses to go hurdling, and the effect it can have on the betting market. Lightning Strike was a fair stayer for Terry Mills, but 200,000 guineas? For a gelding? Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised now that Graham Wylie has raised the crossbar; he hasn’t done too badly, what with three NH Festival winners at Cheltenham in 2006. Tidal Bay actually cost 300,000 guineas out of Alistair Charlton’s yard, so any financial profit from prize-money is virtually out of the question, though that is not always the prime motivation, of course.

Anyway, Lightning Strike is now owned by John Nicholls (Trading) Ltd and trained by Venetia Williams, who could hardly be in better form. But 5 to 4 was a little hard to understand and owed much to simply having RUN against good horses at Cheltenham and Aintree without necessarily causing them too much anxiety. And then there was his virtually tailed off effort in the Cesarewitch, though he was prominent for quite a long way. In fairness, he looked like cruising in at Haydock until Tazbar made him pull out all the stops on the run-in. It was a fair effort and he should progress again but, as the purchaser, you would already know that you were in it for the fun and a partial recoupment at best.

Saturday betting fascinates me. I never miss a Haydock meeting and you know, as soon as the favourite hits the front, that the price is of little consequence to many onlookers, who threaten to raise the roof. Quite a bit was given back when Gwanako failed to match the fully-exposed Pigeon Island and Pouvoir in the limited handicap hurdle and my guess is that the form will not work out particularly well.

The limited relevance of comparing hurdling and chasing marks

There is as much talk about favourable hurdling marks compared to chasing ones (and vice-versa) as there is about anything else at present. Again, I may be an old curmudgeon but I believe the relevance of this is strictly limited. How does it work if the horse is simply a better chaser than hurdler, which Taranis, who was sent off at a truly ridiculous 7 to 4 in a valuable 18-runner handicap hurdle, clearly is? Expert columnists would not be doing their job if they failed to mention these things but when the animal in question is trained by Paul Nicholls as well, the bookmakers have carte blanche to lay at the sort of price which is bound to see them in clover in the long run. You have to quicken up more in quality handicap hurdles than you do in handicap chases and Taranis was never going to manage it. In the end, laying him on the exchanges was practically a licence to print money.

And so, there were many on course who both wanted and needed Kauto Star to win the big one, which he did - just. On the ratings he was a 4 to 5 chance, on his running at Aintree he wasn’t, but those who went in heavily got away with it.

The sport craves superstars and I was more than happy to see him return to winning ways. He is a good horse, a tough and versatile one, and will put two or three thousand on the gate wherever he goes. But there is actually no real logic in labelling him one of the greats, not unless you’re going to put Exotic Dancer in the same bracket, which no one is about to do.

Exotic Dancer was beaten two and a half lengths in the Gold Cup and reduced it to half a length at Haydock. When Kauto Star makes a mistake late on, which I hope never happens again but cannot be ruled out, Jonjo O’Neill’s horse will be waiting to take advantage. If there is only half a length between then over three miles, which the form book tells us is the case, it may well happen at Kempton in the King George.

I’m not saying Kauto Star is overrated, merely that he is not all that far ahead of the best of his contemporaries. As one who had no financial interest in the race I viewed it fairly dispassionately, coming away with the impression that Exotic Dancer would make things even harder next time, while My Way De Solzen’s running should simply be ignored. I don’t know what went wrong, but he got in close at one on the far side and was never really travelling afterwards. Heresy of heresies, I think he will improve past the first two in the Gold Cup but, if you’re going to back him for that race, you should do it before he runs well in the King George. Kauto Star is not a genuine odds-on shot in either race.