Rainbow View has much to prove

By Ian Carnaby

‘Jamais deux sans trois’, as the French say.

Never two without three, so perhaps it was only to be expected that Rainbow View’s disappointing fifth in the 1000 Guineas and Golden Sword’s 25 to 1 triumph in the Chester Vase - at the chief expense of strongly-fancied stable-companion Masterofthehorse - preceded a bizarre Ormonde Stakes, where the field was reduced to three and odds-on favourite Frozen Fire finished last.

The logician tends to pounce on the easy answer. Rainbow View, John Gosden said, could not let herself down on the firm ground at Newmarket. In fact it was officially good to firm, having been watered, and that description also applied when she won on her debut as a two-year old. In these days when everything is analysed like a leading suspect’s bed linen, we should not jib at the notion that there is good to firm and, well, good to firm. They are two tiny, twinkling stars in a whole galaxy of good to firms, and we must accept the fact.

All right, maybe Rainbow View was unable to use herself properly in the Guineas. Then again, if the ground was so firm, why was she not withdrawn? It was within connections’ power to walk the course and take that decision. According to the trainer, such a move was out of the question with an ante-post favourite.

It’s at this point that some of us see logic hurrying away from the scene. Are we to understand that ante-post bets placed by complete strangers came before the welfare of a top-class, extremely valuable filly? If the state of the ground meant that she might not be able to do herself justice, the bets would be down anyway. Furthermore, people holding off until she cantered down without sweating up would lose as well. Which they did, of course.

Gosden has become a reliable and engaging interviewee but there is something of the patrician about him, an aristocratic, ‘I think I know best’ attitude which discourages inconvenient questions. Sadly, since Julian Wilson moved over, most racing broadcasters are so pleased to get the interview in the first place that they send down six easy deliveries which are either batted back or allowed through to the wicket- keeper.

Put simply, Rainbow View, previously unbeaten, was very disappointing indeed in the Guineas. She was being niggled along at half-way and found hardly anything. Maybe it was the ground, maybe the owner insisted that she run, maybe she has not trained on. If she fails on easier ground next time, we shall know which of the three holds most water. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen. She was brilliant at two and, unlike a lot of precocious juvenile fillies, she stayed a mile. The sport needs her to reclaim the limelight and prove a hardened doubter wrong.

Big names shape markets

When Aidan O’Brien’s Masterofthehorse finished eleventh of 15 in the Racing Post Trophy last season, his Classic prospects looked decidedly shaky. He is not one of Ballydoyle’s leading lights and his starting price of 13 to 8 when he reappeared in the Chester Vase took some believing.

However, O’Brien’s record on these shores is such that a clean slate is readily granted to any challenger in races like this. Masterofthehorse’s stable-companion Golden Sword was also in the line-up and had finished a close fourth in the Group Two Prix Noailles last time, ridden by Christophe Soumillon, no less, but he started at 25 to 1 in this.

Johnny Murtagh was on the favourite, of course. Taking this into account, hardly any rank and file punters would have had time for Golden Sword and Colm O’Donoghue - glorified pacemakers, the pair of them. Unfortunately, they made all the running and were still two lengths clear at the line. The knives were out for Murtagh, the consensus being that he had left it too late. However, repeated viewings of the tape show that Masterofthehorse had every chance and found relatively little in the straight. If Murtagh made a mistake, it came when he deserted Golden Sword, whom he’d partnered on all four outings last term. Then again, we don’t know to what degree O’Brien calls the shots in that regard.

What IS certain is that trainers and jockeys shape markets. 25 to 1 about a horse beaten only a length and half in a Group Two, now running in a Group Three? What would the prices have been with the jockeys reversed? Suddenly the form in France would have been studied in microscopic detail and different conclusions reached.

Things are so sophisticated these days and analysis so comprehensive that it’s comforting psychology can still play a part. Psychologically, as the eyes drift right to check the jockeys in the paper, Golden Sword can’t win. Even now he can’t win. Heigh ho.

Murtagh is an amiable cove who has known enough ups and downs in life to stop and give you the time of day, even when he’s fed up. So Mike Cattermole wondered if, given his time again, he’d have taken the initiative on 8 to 11 favourite Frozen Fire in the Ormonde Stakes when the three runners went a circuit at the pace of a Great War veteran being summoned for his tablets.

Well, yes, said Johnny, he was following instructions but maybe he should have had the chutzpah, the sheer bravado of the 4am gambler and kicked on like a man looking for a late bar and a little company. Well, he didn’t put it quite like that but you know what I mean. It hardly matters because Frozen Fire would probably have refused to go along with it anyway, but it was good to hear the question being asked.

Maybe there’s hope after all.